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Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 16, 2026 BTCUSD
BTCUSD: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.
The Bitcoin outlook has remained largely unchanged over the past trading session. After slightly breaking above the previous Wave 1 high, the price has paused. This is likely just a brief consolidation before the next leg of the uptrend begins.
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The current scenario still favors further upside as Wave 3 of the bullish impulse starts to unfold.
As a result, long positions continue to offer an attractive trading opportunity.
New positions may be considered on a breakout above the nearest local high at 65,550.
Investment idea: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.
BTCUSD: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.
The Bitcoin outlook has remained largely unchanged over the past trading session. After slightly breaking above the previous Wave 1 high, the price has paused. This is likely just a brief consolidation before the next leg of the uptrend begins.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
The current scenario still favors further upside as Wave 3 of the bullish impulse starts to unfold.
As a result, long positions continue to offer an attractive trading opportunity.
New positions may be considered on a breakout above the nearest local high at 65,550.
Investment idea: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.
XAUUSD in turmoil: traders await the outcome
Over the past month, #XAUUSD has shown a sharp decline and increased volatility. From June 15 to July 15, gold fell by approximately 6%, dropping from around $4,300 to $4,050 per ounce. The instrument’s further dynamics will primarily depend on Federal Reserve decisions, U.S. inflation data, and developments in the Middle East: easing inflationary pressure may support a price recovery, while rising oil prices and expectations of rate hikes could trigger a new wave of selling.
Trade silver-based instruments with no swaps! Hurry! The promotion runs from July 10 to July 24, 2026.
Growth Factors:
1. Weak U.S. labor market data. In June, the U.S. economy added only 57K jobs versus the expected 110K, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. Amid a weaker dollar, gold rose by more than 2% on July 2.
2. Slowing consumer inflation. A weaker-than-expected June CPI report prompted market participants to revise their outlook on further Fed tightening. On July 14, XAUUSD gained more than 2%, while the dollar lost about 0.6%.
3. Decline in U.S. producer prices. The PPI index unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June, marking the largest drop in 14 months. The data helped gold recover after an initial decline and eased concerns about aggressive rate hikes.
Downside Factors:
1. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. After the June FOMC meeting, investors raised expectations for further rate hikes, while U.S. bond yields and the dollar surged. As early as June 17, gold reversed downward, with the decline continuing over several sessions.
2. Strengthening U.S. dollar. By June 23, the dollar index reached a roughly one-year high, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The next day, XAUUSD fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November 2025.
3. Rising oil prices and escalating tensions with Iran. Renewed tensions in the Middle East led to a surge in oil prices and increased concerns about accelerating inflation. As a result, traditional safe-haven demand for gold was outweighed by rate hike expectations, and on July 13 the metal dropped by around 3%.
From June 15 to the present, gold’s movement has been marked by sharp reversals, with daily price changes exceeding 2% in several sessions. Going forward, recovery may continue if the dollar weakens and rate hike expectations decline. However, rising oil prices and persistent inflation risks may again increase pressure on the metal.
According to FreshForex analysts, traders should closely monitor developments in the Middle East, U.S. economic data releases, and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Sharp shifts in interest rate expectations can lead to strong movements in XAUUSD in both directions. Increased market activity creates additional trading opportunities, so consider trading #XAUUSD with proper risk management.
FreshForex offers 250+ trading instruments, including metals with leverage up to 1:1000.
Over the past month, #XAUUSD has shown a sharp decline and increased volatility. From June 15 to July 15, gold fell by approximately 6%, dropping from around $4,300 to $4,050 per ounce. The instrument’s further dynamics will primarily depend on Federal Reserve decisions, U.S. inflation data, and developments in the Middle East: easing inflationary pressure may support a price recovery, while rising oil prices and expectations of rate hikes could trigger a new wave of selling.
Trade silver-based instruments with no swaps! Hurry! The promotion runs from July 10 to July 24, 2026.
Growth Factors:
1. Weak U.S. labor market data. In June, the U.S. economy added only 57K jobs versus the expected 110K, reducing the likelihood of a near-term Fed rate hike. Amid a weaker dollar, gold rose by more than 2% on July 2.
2. Slowing consumer inflation. A weaker-than-expected June CPI report prompted market participants to revise their outlook on further Fed tightening. On July 14, XAUUSD gained more than 2%, while the dollar lost about 0.6%.
3. Decline in U.S. producer prices. The PPI index unexpectedly fell by 0.3% in June, marking the largest drop in 14 months. The data helped gold recover after an initial decline and eased concerns about aggressive rate hikes.
Downside Factors:
1. Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. After the June FOMC meeting, investors raised expectations for further rate hikes, while U.S. bond yields and the dollar surged. As early as June 17, gold reversed downward, with the decline continuing over several sessions.
2. Strengthening U.S. dollar. By June 23, the dollar index reached a roughly one-year high, making gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The next day, XAUUSD fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time since November 2025.
3. Rising oil prices and escalating tensions with Iran. Renewed tensions in the Middle East led to a surge in oil prices and increased concerns about accelerating inflation. As a result, traditional safe-haven demand for gold was outweighed by rate hike expectations, and on July 13 the metal dropped by around 3%.
From June 15 to the present, gold’s movement has been marked by sharp reversals, with daily price changes exceeding 2% in several sessions. Going forward, recovery may continue if the dollar weakens and rate hike expectations decline. However, rising oil prices and persistent inflation risks may again increase pressure on the metal.
According to FreshForex analysts, traders should closely monitor developments in the Middle East, U.S. economic data releases, and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Sharp shifts in interest rate expectations can lead to strong movements in XAUUSD in both directions. Increased market activity creates additional trading opportunities, so consider trading #XAUUSD with proper risk management.
FreshForex offers 250+ trading instruments, including metals with leverage up to 1:1000.
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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 17, 2026 USDJPY
USDJPY:
The yen remains near multi-year lows as the interest rate differential continues to encourage positions favoring the dollar. The Bank of Japan must take risks to economic growth and the government bond market into account, limiting expectations of rapid policy tightening. High costs for imported energy are placing additional pressure on the Japanese currency.
On the US side, USD/JPY is supported by resilient employment data and a recovery in US Treasury yields following their recent decline. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions are increasing demand for the dollar, which combines defensive qualities with higher yields. Softer US inflation has reduced the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, but the yield differential remains wide.
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The main constraint on further gains in the pair is the risk of action by the Japanese authorities. The Ministry of Finance has again stated that it is prepared to respond to excessive currency movements, while previous interventions show that a sharp rise in the dollar may trigger countermeasures. However, without confirmed action, this risk does not outweigh the interest rate factor, and the baseline scenario allows for a cautious rise in USD/JPY.
Trading idea: BUY 162.40, SL 162.10, TP 163.00
USDJPY:
The yen remains near multi-year lows as the interest rate differential continues to encourage positions favoring the dollar. The Bank of Japan must take risks to economic growth and the government bond market into account, limiting expectations of rapid policy tightening. High costs for imported energy are placing additional pressure on the Japanese currency.
On the US side, USD/JPY is supported by resilient employment data and a recovery in US Treasury yields following their recent decline. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions are increasing demand for the dollar, which combines defensive qualities with higher yields. Softer US inflation has reduced the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, but the yield differential remains wide.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
The main constraint on further gains in the pair is the risk of action by the Japanese authorities. The Ministry of Finance has again stated that it is prepared to respond to excessive currency movements, while previous interventions show that a sharp rise in the dollar may trigger countermeasures. However, without confirmed action, this risk does not outweigh the interest rate factor, and the baseline scenario allows for a cautious rise in USD/JPY.
Trading idea: BUY 162.40, SL 162.10, TP 163.00
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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 20, 2026 EURUSD
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session amid a more cautious attitude toward European assets. The sharp rise in oil prices has renewed concerns about imported inflation while also increasing risks to eurozone economic growth. The upcoming ECB decision continues to support expectations of tighter monetary policy, but weak business activity limits the single currency’s ability to benefit from this factor on a sustained basis.
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The main driver for the US dollar remains demand for defensive liquidity amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher US Treasury yields provide additional support to the currency. The market is considering the possibility that renewed energy-driven inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer, despite the recent slowdown in US inflation.
As a result, the euro’s support from ECB expectations is currently outweighed by the stronger US dollar driver during this session. Higher energy costs are particularly sensitive for the eurozone, as they could weaken consumption prospects while maintaining price pressure. If geopolitical tensions and demand for the US dollar persist, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in EURUSD.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1440, SL 1.1470, TP 1.1370
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session amid a more cautious attitude toward European assets. The sharp rise in oil prices has renewed concerns about imported inflation while also increasing risks to eurozone economic growth. The upcoming ECB decision continues to support expectations of tighter monetary policy, but weak business activity limits the single currency’s ability to benefit from this factor on a sustained basis.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
The main driver for the US dollar remains demand for defensive liquidity amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher US Treasury yields provide additional support to the currency. The market is considering the possibility that renewed energy-driven inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer, despite the recent slowdown in US inflation.
As a result, the euro’s support from ECB expectations is currently outweighed by the stronger US dollar driver during this session. Higher energy costs are particularly sensitive for the eurozone, as they could weaken consumption prospects while maintaining price pressure. If geopolitical tensions and demand for the US dollar persist, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in EURUSD.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1440, SL 1.1470, TP 1.1370
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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 24 July 2026
XAUUSD: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50
Gold begins the week near $4,015 per ounce, remaining under pressure as rising oil prices lead markets to reassess Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Higher energy costs are increasing inflation risks, supporting US Treasury yields, and raising the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for defensive assets, but this has not yet offset the impact of the US dollar and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. If the oil price shock continues to support US yields, the fundamental scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD.
Trading idea: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50
#SP500: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380
The #SP500 enters the week following a decline in the technology sector, while higher oil prices are reviving concerns about inflation and borrowing costs. Rising US Treasury yields could place additional pressure on company valuations, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to financing costs.
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Major corporate earnings could support the index if results confirm strong profit expectations. However, high market concentration and the correction in semiconductor stocks increase the risk of disappointment. If oil prices and US yields remain elevated, the baseline scenario continues to point lower.
Trading idea: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380
#BRENT: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30
Brent begins the week above $90 per barrel following a sharp increase in risks to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and tensions surrounding Iranian ports are increasing the likelihood of disruptions, keeping the geopolitical risk premium as the market's main driver.
The advance has already been substantial, increasing the risk of a correction if there are signs of de-escalation or a normalization of shipping activity. Nevertheless, restricted transit capacity and low inventories continue to provide fundamental support for oil. Until supply risks ease, the priority remains a cautious upside scenario for #BRENT.
Trading idea: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30
XAUUSD: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50
Gold begins the week near $4,015 per ounce, remaining under pressure as rising oil prices lead markets to reassess Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Higher energy costs are increasing inflation risks, supporting US Treasury yields, and raising the opportunity cost of holding the metal.
Geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for defensive assets, but this has not yet offset the impact of the US dollar and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. If the oil price shock continues to support US yields, the fundamental scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD.
Trading idea: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50
#SP500: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380
The #SP500 enters the week following a decline in the technology sector, while higher oil prices are reviving concerns about inflation and borrowing costs. Rising US Treasury yields could place additional pressure on company valuations, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to financing costs.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Major corporate earnings could support the index if results confirm strong profit expectations. However, high market concentration and the correction in semiconductor stocks increase the risk of disappointment. If oil prices and US yields remain elevated, the baseline scenario continues to point lower.
Trading idea: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380
#BRENT: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30
Brent begins the week above $90 per barrel following a sharp increase in risks to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and tensions surrounding Iranian ports are increasing the likelihood of disruptions, keeping the geopolitical risk premium as the market's main driver.
The advance has already been substantial, increasing the risk of a correction if there are signs of de-escalation or a normalization of shipping activity. Nevertheless, restricted transit capacity and low inventories continue to provide fundamental support for oil. Until supply risks ease, the priority remains a cautious upside scenario for #BRENT.
Trading idea: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30
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Analysis of margin levels for July 21, 2026 #NQ100
#NQ100: SELL 28510.3-28787.8, TP1-28232.8, TP2-27126.3.
Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29600.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, indicating strong selling pressure.
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Medium-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 29460.0–29560.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, confirming the strength of sellers.
From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the low of July 17, 2026.
The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 28510.3.
The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 28787.8.
Intraday target: a move below the July 17, 2026 low at 28232.8.
Medium-term target: a test of the upper boundary of the GWCZ at 27126.3.
Investment recommendation: consider selling from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern has formed.
Sell: 28510.3-28787.8, Take Profit 1-28232.8, Take Profit 2-27126.3.
#NQ100: SELL 28510.3-28787.8, TP1-28232.8, TP2-27126.3.
Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29600.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, indicating strong selling pressure.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Medium-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 29460.0–29560.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, confirming the strength of sellers.
From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the low of July 17, 2026.
The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 28510.3.
The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 28787.8.
Intraday target: a move below the July 17, 2026 low at 28232.8.
Medium-term target: a test of the upper boundary of the GWCZ at 27126.3.
Investment recommendation: consider selling from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern has formed.
Sell: 28510.3-28787.8, Take Profit 1-28232.8, Take Profit 2-27126.3.
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Analysis of margin levels for July 21, 2026 #NQ100
#NQ100: SELL 28510.3-28787.8, TP1-28232.8, TP2-27126.3.
Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29600.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, indicating strong selling pressure.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Medium-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 29460.0–29560.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, confirming the strength of sellers.
From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the low of July 17, 2026.
The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 28510.3.
The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 28787.8.
Intraday target: a move below the July 17, 2026 low at 28232.8.
Medium-term target: a test of the upper boundary of the GWCZ at 27126.3.
Investment recommendation: consider selling from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern has formed.
Sell: 28510.3-28787.8, Take Profit 1-28232.8, Take Profit 2-27126.3.
#NQ100: SELL 28510.3-28787.8, TP1-28232.8, TP2-27126.3.
Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29600.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, indicating strong selling pressure.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Medium-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 29460.0–29560.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, confirming the strength of sellers.
From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the low of July 17, 2026.
The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 28510.3.
The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 28787.8.
Intraday target: a move below the July 17, 2026 low at 28232.8.
Medium-term target: a test of the upper boundary of the GWCZ at 27126.3.
Investment recommendation: consider selling from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern has formed.
Sell: 28510.3-28787.8, Take Profit 1-28232.8, Take Profit 2-27126.3.
Writer41 posts
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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2026 GBPUSD
Event to watch today:
09:00 EET. GBP – Consumer Price Index
GBPUSD:
The pound enters the session near 1.3385 after several days of losses. Investors are assessing the first decisions of the new UK government and the possible methods of financing additional expenditure. Its commitment to maintaining existing fiscal rules has partly eased concerns, but the risk of higher borrowing and future tax increases continues to limit demand for the British currency.
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Recent data showed that the labor market is stabilizing at weak levels. Wage growth and unemployment were largely unchanged, while payroll figures failed to indicate a convincing recovery. This backdrop does not provide the Bank of England with sufficient grounds to adopt a significantly tighter policy stance. It also puts the pound at a disadvantage against the dollar, which is supported by higher US Treasury yields and demand linked to geopolitical uncertainty.
The external dollar impulse remains stronger than the pound’s local support factors. Even the attractive yields offered by UK assets do not fully offset fiscal uncertainty and weak employment dynamics. If oil prices and US Treasury yields remain elevated, the downside scenario continues to take priority for GBP/USD.
Trading idea: SELL 1.3385, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300
Event to watch today:
09:00 EET. GBP – Consumer Price Index
GBPUSD:
The pound enters the session near 1.3385 after several days of losses. Investors are assessing the first decisions of the new UK government and the possible methods of financing additional expenditure. Its commitment to maintaining existing fiscal rules has partly eased concerns, but the risk of higher borrowing and future tax increases continues to limit demand for the British currency.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Recent data showed that the labor market is stabilizing at weak levels. Wage growth and unemployment were largely unchanged, while payroll figures failed to indicate a convincing recovery. This backdrop does not provide the Bank of England with sufficient grounds to adopt a significantly tighter policy stance. It also puts the pound at a disadvantage against the dollar, which is supported by higher US Treasury yields and demand linked to geopolitical uncertainty.
The external dollar impulse remains stronger than the pound’s local support factors. Even the attractive yields offered by UK assets do not fully offset fiscal uncertainty and weak employment dynamics. If oil prices and US Treasury yields remain elevated, the downside scenario continues to take priority for GBP/USD.
Trading idea: SELL 1.3385, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300
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Oil, the Yen, and #NQ100: Three Signals of Rising Volatility
Financial markets have received several fresh catalysts for increased volatility. #Brent crude has climbed close to multi-week highs, the Japanese yen has weakened to levels not seen in decades, and the U.S. technology sector is preparing for earnings releases from its largest companies.
Although these markets are driven by different factors, they share one common theme: shifting expectations for inflation, interest rates, and demand for risk assets.
Get a 202% Drawdown Bonus on deposits of $202 or more. Enter the promo code July in your Client Area and claim your bonus!
#Brent: Supply Risks Remain in Focus
Brent crude has climbed toward $95 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel supply concerns. Additional pressure comes from threats to shipping routes in the Red Sea and reduced maritime activity around the Strait of Hormuz.
Any further disruptions could increase both shipping costs and delivery times for crude oil. If geopolitical tensions escalate, Brent could move closer to the $100 mark. On the other hand, easing tensions would likely reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting prices.
USDJPY: Intervention Risk Is Growing
USDJPY has traded above 163, reaching its highest level in roughly four decades. Japanese authorities have once again signaled their readiness to act against excessive weakness in the national currency.
The yen continues to face pressure from the wide interest rate gap between the United States and Japan. Higher oil prices add to the challenge, as a weaker yen makes imported energy more expensive and reinforces inflationary pressures.
The probability of a currency intervention is increasing, meaning USDJPY could experience sharp price swings. However, without a change in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, any intervention may have only a temporary impact.
#NQ100: A Key Test for the Technology Sector
The #NQ100 index is entering a crucial period as major technology companies prepare to report quarterly earnings. Investors will be watching profit figures, artificial intelligence spending, and forward guidance particularly closely.
Strong earnings could revive demand for technology stocks. Conversely, disappointing results or rising AI-related spending without corresponding profit growth could trigger another wave of selling.
Another important risk factor is rising U.S. Treasury yields. Elevated oil prices continue to support inflation expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve policy easing—a scenario that typically weighs on growth stocks.
What Comes Next?
#Brent, USDJPY, and #NQ100 are all trading near important technical and fundamental levels. Their next major moves will largely depend on developments in global oil supply, potential action by Japanese authorities, and earnings results from leading technology companies.
According to FreshForex analysts, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and corporate earnings season is likely to keep volatility high across commodity, currency, and equity markets. Stay ahead of the market with FreshForex and make the most of every opportunity.
Financial markets have received several fresh catalysts for increased volatility. #Brent crude has climbed close to multi-week highs, the Japanese yen has weakened to levels not seen in decades, and the U.S. technology sector is preparing for earnings releases from its largest companies.
Although these markets are driven by different factors, they share one common theme: shifting expectations for inflation, interest rates, and demand for risk assets.
Get a 202% Drawdown Bonus on deposits of $202 or more. Enter the promo code July in your Client Area and claim your bonus!
#Brent: Supply Risks Remain in Focus
Brent crude has climbed toward $95 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel supply concerns. Additional pressure comes from threats to shipping routes in the Red Sea and reduced maritime activity around the Strait of Hormuz.
Any further disruptions could increase both shipping costs and delivery times for crude oil. If geopolitical tensions escalate, Brent could move closer to the $100 mark. On the other hand, easing tensions would likely reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting prices.
USDJPY: Intervention Risk Is Growing
USDJPY has traded above 163, reaching its highest level in roughly four decades. Japanese authorities have once again signaled their readiness to act against excessive weakness in the national currency.
The yen continues to face pressure from the wide interest rate gap between the United States and Japan. Higher oil prices add to the challenge, as a weaker yen makes imported energy more expensive and reinforces inflationary pressures.
The probability of a currency intervention is increasing, meaning USDJPY could experience sharp price swings. However, without a change in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, any intervention may have only a temporary impact.
#NQ100: A Key Test for the Technology Sector
The #NQ100 index is entering a crucial period as major technology companies prepare to report quarterly earnings. Investors will be watching profit figures, artificial intelligence spending, and forward guidance particularly closely.
Strong earnings could revive demand for technology stocks. Conversely, disappointing results or rising AI-related spending without corresponding profit growth could trigger another wave of selling.
Another important risk factor is rising U.S. Treasury yields. Elevated oil prices continue to support inflation expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve policy easing—a scenario that typically weighs on growth stocks.
What Comes Next?
#Brent, USDJPY, and #NQ100 are all trading near important technical and fundamental levels. Their next major moves will largely depend on developments in global oil supply, potential action by Japanese authorities, and earnings results from leading technology companies.
According to FreshForex analysts, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and corporate earnings season is likely to keep volatility high across commodity, currency, and equity markets. Stay ahead of the market with FreshForex and make the most of every opportunity.
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Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 23, 2026 BTCUSD
BTCUSD: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000
The overall wave structure for Bitcoin remains unchanged. During the previous trading session, buyers attempted to continue their slow but steady advance. However, they were unable to maintain the upward momentum.
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The rally stalled and was followed by a modest pullback. For now, the market remains in consolidation, but Bitcoin is expected to resume its advance in the near term, as the broader technical picture continues to favor the bulls.
The outlook still calls for further upside as Wave 3 of the developing bullish impulse unfolds. Therefore, long positions continue to offer the most attractive trading opportunity.
Investment idea: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000.
BTCUSD: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000
The overall wave structure for Bitcoin remains unchanged. During the previous trading session, buyers attempted to continue their slow but steady advance. However, they were unable to maintain the upward momentum.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
The rally stalled and was followed by a modest pullback. For now, the market remains in consolidation, but Bitcoin is expected to resume its advance in the near term, as the broader technical picture continues to favor the bulls.
The outlook still calls for further upside as Wave 3 of the developing bullish impulse unfolds. Therefore, long positions continue to offer the most attractive trading opportunity.
Investment idea: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000.
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Jul 16, 2026 11:30