Analysis of margin levels for July 7, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4101.83–4152.73, TP1 4203.73, TP2 4366.93.

Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volume in the current contract is located between 4320.00 and 4370.00. Trading activity in XAUUSD is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.

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Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volume is located between 4025.00 and 4040.00. Trading activity is currently taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.

The favourable buying area, based on margin requirements, lies between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones calculated from the high of 6 July 2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4152.73.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4101.83.

Intraday target: a new high above the 6 July 2026 peak at 4203.73.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4366.93.

Trading idea: consider buying within the favourable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4101.83–4152.73, Take Profit 1: 4203.73, Take Profit 2: 4366.93.

Indices rise on weak U.S. data

U.S. labor market data for June came in weaker than expected. This strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates, supporting U.S. and European indices. Shares of companies linked to artificial intelligence also attracted buyers again.

The cost of borrowing is important for companies. When rates are stable, it is easier for them to plan expenses and investments. This can support demand for equities. In Europe, inflation slowed in June. This trend may also reduce concerns about further tightening by central banks.

Factors behind index growth:

#SP500 — more moderate expectations regarding interest rates. This may support stocks across various sectors.

#NQ100 — demand for technology and artificial intelligence. Increased corporate spending on development may boost interest in the tech sector.

#DJI30 — resilience of large U.S. companies. More accessible credit may support industrial and consumer sectors.

#ESTX50 — slowing inflation in the eurozone. This may improve conditions for major European companies.

#CAC40 — demand for French equities. Softer rate expectations may support banks, industrial, and consumer companies.

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The five indices reflect a general increase in interest in equities. #NQ100 is more dependent on spending related to artificial intelligence. #SP500 and #DJI30 reflect the condition of the broad U.S. market. #ESTX50 and #CAC40 are supported by slowing inflation. At the same time, European indices remain sensitive to global economic demand.


According to FreshForex analysts, indices will depend on economic data. Expectations regarding interest rates and bond yields are important. In the coming weeks and months, earnings reports and plans of major companies will play a key role. Investor willingness to buy riskier assets is also crucial. So far, employment and inflation data are creating conditions for increased demand for equities. Even in a positive scenario, it is important to limit risks in advance and consider the possibility of changes in market conditions.

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Indices rise on weak U.S. data

U.S. labor market data for June came in weaker than expected. This strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut interest rates, supporting U.S. and European indices. Shares of companies linked to artificial intelligence also attracted buyers again.

The cost of borrowing is important for companies. When rates are stable, it is easier for them to plan expenses and investments. This can support demand for equities. In Europe, inflation slowed in June. This trend may also reduce concerns about further tightening by central banks.

Factors behind index growth:

#SP500 — more moderate expectations regarding interest rates. This may support stocks across various sectors.

#NQ100 — demand for technology and artificial intelligence. Increased corporate spending on development may boost interest in the tech sector.

#DJI30 — resilience of large U.S. companies. More accessible credit may support industrial and consumer sectors.

#ESTX50 — slowing inflation in the eurozone. This may improve conditions for major European companies.

#CAC40 — demand for French equities. Softer rate expectations may support banks, industrial, and consumer companies.

Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.

The five indices reflect a general increase in interest in equities. #NQ100 is more dependent on spending related to artificial intelligence. #SP500 and #DJI30 reflect the condition of the broad U.S. market. #ESTX50 and #CAC40 are supported by slowing inflation. At the same time, European indices remain sensitive to global economic demand.


According to FreshForex analysts, indices will depend on economic data. Expectations regarding interest rates and bond yields are important. In the coming weeks and months, earnings reports and plans of major companies will play a key role. Investor willingness to buy riskier assets is also crucial. So far, employment and inflation data are creating conditions for increased demand for equities. Even in a positive scenario, it is important to limit risks in advance and consider the possibility of changes in market conditions.

Choose from over 250 instruments in the trading terminal, including CFDs on indices and stocks, and activate a 101% drawdown bonus in your Client Area with a deposit starting from $101.

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 8, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes

GBPUSD:

The pound enters today’s session with stronger domestic support than the euro. A fresh recruitment survey showed an improvement in temporary hiring and faster starting salary growth. This matters for the Bank of England, which is closely watching wage pressure. Even with slower activity in the services sector, these signals reduce the scope for the central bank to shift toward a softer stance too quickly.

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The US dollar remains strong due to geopolitical tension and expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve minutes. This means any recovery in GBP/USD is unlikely to be one-sided. Still, the pound is receiving local support not only from the wage factor, but also from a partial easing of fiscal concerns. The market is assessing the political transition more calmly if the new team keeps budget constraints in place.

Under the baseline scenario, GBP/USD may retain an advantage if investors continue to factor in wage resilience and the Bank of England’s limited room to discuss a rate cut. Risks for the pair are linked to another strengthening of the US dollar and higher oil prices. However, fresh UK data give sterling its own supporting argument. If current conditions remain in place, the buy idea looks justified.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3355, SL 1.3325, TP 1.3445

Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 9, 2026 BTCUSD
​
BTCUSD: BUY 64300, SL 61800, TP 75600.

Following the prolonged decline and the apparent completion of the impulsive wave (c) of z, buyers attempted to regain control. Although the initial rally was relatively modest, the market now needs to withstand selling pressure from bears attempting to push the price back toward the recent lows.

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So far, Bitcoin has handled this pressure well. The price has been trading within a narrow range for the second consecutive day, with the expected breakout pointing to the upside. Ultimately, this consolidation is expected to develop into a full-fledged bullish impulse.

Given this outlook, opening long positions at current market prices appears to be a reasonable strategy.

Investment idea: BUY 64300, SL 61800, TP 75600.

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 10, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY

The latest Japanese producer price data strengthened the case for the yen. The index rose by 7.1% year on year in June, compared with expectations of 6.8%. Import prices in yen terms also increased at their fastest pace since 2022. Rising cost pressures make it more likely that the Bank of Japan will return to the issue of further interest rate increases.

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The central bank has already warned that companies are passing higher raw material and fuel costs on to consumers more quickly. Following the June rate increase to 1%, markets are considering the possibility of another move before the end of the year. This is gradually reducing the US dollar’s advantage in interest-rate-differential trades. US Treasury yields still support the American currency, but lower expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve decision are weakening this factor.

Yen weakness is also increasing import costs and keeping the foreign exchange market under close scrutiny from the Japanese authorities. The risk of official action does not determine the direction on its own. However, it is now accompanied by a fresh inflation signal and a stronger basis for further Bank of Japan action. Under these conditions, a decline in USDJPY appears to be the more sustainable scenario unless the US dollar receives renewed support from US economic data.

Trading idea: SELL 161.45, SL 161.75, TP 160.55

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 13, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:

For the euro, the key factor today is not only pressure from higher energy prices, but also the market’s reassessment of ECB expectations. Rising oil prices are again increasing inflation risks in the eurozone, reducing the likelihood of an overly soft stance from the central bank. The regional economy remains sensitive to import costs, but the inflation channel may temporarily support the euro.

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The US dollar remains supported by geopolitical tension and higher US Treasury yields. However, part of this advantage has already been priced in after the recent reassessment of Federal Reserve expectations. Ahead of the US inflation release, market participants may be more cautious about increasing dollar exposure, especially if they expect confirmation of slower price pressure in the US. This creates room for a recovery in EURUSD.

Under the baseline scenario, the euro’s advantage looks moderate, but more justified than continued selling after a strong reaction to the external shock. If ECB expectations remain steady and US data does not strengthen the case for a tougher Federal Reserve stance, the pair may receive support. Against the current fundamental backdrop, the buying idea looks like a workable scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1400, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1490

Analysis of margin levels for July 14, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4034.52-4085.82, TP1-3983.22, TP2-3797.92.​

• Long-term trend: Short. The peak volume concentration for the current contract lies within the 4070.00–4120.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.

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• Medium-term trend: Short. The peak volume concentration for the medium-term trend lies within the 4095.00–4115.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.

• The favorable selling price zone (based on margin requirements) is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, calculated from the low of July 14, 2026.

• Lower boundary of the 1/4 zone: 4034.52.

• Lower boundary of the 1/2 zone: 4085.82.

• Intraday targets: Breaking the low of July 14, 2026 (3983.22).

• Medium-term goals: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3797.92.

• Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Sell: 4034.52-4085.82, Take Profit 1–3983.22, Take Profit 2–3797.92.

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 15, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD — Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to deliver the semi-annual report to the US Congress

GBPUSD:

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The pound enters the European session on a firmer footing after softer US inflation reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. Lower US Treasury yields weakened the dollar’s advantage and supported GBP/USD. However, the move remains restrained as the market awaits further evidence that the slowdown in US price pressures was not temporary.

The UK’s domestic backdrop provides limited but noticeable support for sterling. The Bank of England Governor noted that renewed escalation in the Middle East had increased uncertainty but had not yet materially changed the UK inflation outlook. This reduces the risk of an abrupt shift in the central bank’s policy stance, although high oil prices and elevated borrowing costs remain vulnerabilities for the economy.

Political and fiscal uncertainty limits the potential for one-sided gains in the British currency. Nevertheless, during the current session, the broader dollar factor appears stronger than the pound’s domestic risks. The weaker US inflation report has already changed expectations for the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy. If producer price data does not reverse this signal, the baseline scenario supports further gains in GBP/USD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3405, SL 1.3370, TP 1.3480

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 17 July 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00

Gold starts the week under pressure as higher oil prices reinforce inflation concerns. Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Market attention remains focused on upcoming US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets, but this factor is currently being outweighed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter policy stance. If US Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar stays supported, the baseline scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD under the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00

#SP500: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150

The US equity market begins the new week in a more cautious environment. Higher energy prices are adding to inflation concerns, which may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. For companies, this means persistently high borrowing costs and more moderate expectations for future earnings.

At the same time, the start of the corporate earnings season will provide an important test for elevated market valuations, particularly in the technology sector. If company results and forward guidance fail to meet investor expectations, pressure on the index may persist. Under these conditions, the selling scenario appears more consistent with the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150

#BRENT: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30

Brent starts the week with strong support from persistent risks to global oil supplies. Market participants are closely monitoring developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption could materially tighten the supply balance and support prices despite elevated volatility.

Concerns that higher oil prices may weaken global demand remain a limiting factor. However, the market is currently placing greater emphasis on the risk of supply disruptions. As long as the geopolitical premium remains in place, the baseline scenario allows for further gains in Brent prices.

Trading idea: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30