Community Forex Questions
When technical analysis is your enemy?
Technical analysis is a powerful tool for forecasting price movement in the Forex market. It is more popular than fundamental analysis in currency trading and is used by both novice and experienced traders. Is it truly universal and omnipotent? In some cases, good old technical analysis can ruin your trading.
News of high importance. When extremely important economic news is released with an unexpected outcome that far exceeds any forecast, even the most certain technical patterns are ruined. In the chaos that follows such news releases, relying on technical analysis is trading suicide. Disaster/terrorism news has a similar impact on the Forex market.
Holidays market. Trading during major holidays (such as New Year's and Christmas) is not recommended at all. The technical analysis fails because trading volume is extremely low, causing the market to become highly unbalanced, with large spike movements possible in both directions. During such times, large speculators can shape the market to their liking.
Bubble rallies and bursts. When a market is hyped, it rarely follows common technical analysis rules. When a currency pair rises in a bubble-like manner (for example, the carry trade hype of 2001-2007), trading on sharp rallies can be very profitable but don't expect your support and resistance levels to work there.
News of high importance. When extremely important economic news is released with an unexpected outcome that far exceeds any forecast, even the most certain technical patterns are ruined. In the chaos that follows such news releases, relying on technical analysis is trading suicide. Disaster/terrorism news has a similar impact on the Forex market.
Holidays market. Trading during major holidays (such as New Year's and Christmas) is not recommended at all. The technical analysis fails because trading volume is extremely low, causing the market to become highly unbalanced, with large spike movements possible in both directions. During such times, large speculators can shape the market to their liking.
Bubble rallies and bursts. When a market is hyped, it rarely follows common technical analysis rules. When a currency pair rises in a bubble-like manner (for example, the carry trade hype of 2001-2007), trading on sharp rallies can be very profitable but don't expect your support and resistance levels to work there.
Technical analysis can become an enemy when traders rely on it exclusively without considering market context and fundamentals. Overconfidence in technical indicators may lead to overtrading and ignoring significant news or economic events that can dramatically affect market conditions. Patterns and signals are sometimes misleading, resulting in false breakouts or reversals that can trap traders. Additionally, past price movements do not guarantee future performance, making it risky to predict trends solely based on historical data. Emotional biases, such as confirmation bias, can also cloud judgment, causing traders to see what they want to see in charts. Thus, a balanced approach combining technical analysis with other strategies and thorough market understanding is crucial for successful trading.
Nov 23, 2022 11:00