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Fundamental Market Analysis for August 3, 2026 EURUSD
Event to watch today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
EURUSD:
The euro remains supported after the ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged in July. Maintaining the existing policy settings gave the market no reason to expect immediate monetary easing, allowing the single currency to retain some demand. However, the Federal Reserve's rate remains higher, and the European backdrop alone is not strong enough to generate sustained gains.
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The main driver of the current session is US dollar weakness following confirmed coordinated operations by the United States and Japan to support the yen. Pressure on the dollar has spread beyond USDJPY: the US Dollar Index remains lower after a notable weekly decline, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has fallen. This combination supports EURUSD despite the interest rate differential remaining in favor of the United States.
The market is awaiting US manufacturing activity data, which could alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's next steps. A strong report may restore some demand for the dollar, but until its release, the weakening impulse in the US currency remains dominant. If the current fundamental backdrop persists, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in EURUSD.
Trading idea: BUY 1.1530, SL 1.1495, TP 1.1605
Event to watch today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
EURUSD:
The euro remains supported after the ECB decided to keep its key interest rates unchanged in July. Maintaining the existing policy settings gave the market no reason to expect immediate monetary easing, allowing the single currency to retain some demand. However, the Federal Reserve's rate remains higher, and the European backdrop alone is not strong enough to generate sustained gains.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
The main driver of the current session is US dollar weakness following confirmed coordinated operations by the United States and Japan to support the yen. Pressure on the dollar has spread beyond USDJPY: the US Dollar Index remains lower after a notable weekly decline, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has fallen. This combination supports EURUSD despite the interest rate differential remaining in favor of the United States.
The market is awaiting US manufacturing activity data, which could alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's next steps. A strong report may restore some demand for the dollar, but until its release, the weakening impulse in the US currency remains dominant. If the current fundamental backdrop persists, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in EURUSD.
Trading idea: BUY 1.1530, SL 1.1495, TP 1.1605
Analysis of margin levels for August 4, 2026 XAUUSD
XAUUSD: SELL 4040.30–4090.80, TP1 3989.90, TP2 3865.00.
Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 4035.00–4070.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.
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Medium-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 4022.00–4034.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading above this range, indicating seller weakness.
From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the low of July 29, 2026.
The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4040.30.
The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4090.80.
Intraday target: a retest of the July 29, 2026 low at 3989.90.
Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 3865.00.
Trading idea: consider selling within the favorable price range once a reversal pattern forms.
Sell: 4040.30–4090.80, Take Profit 1: 3989.90, Take Profit 2: 3865.00.
XAUUSD: SELL 4040.30–4090.80, TP1 3989.90, TP2 3865.00.
Long-term trend: temporary uncertainty. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 4035.00–4070.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code MR20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Medium-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 4022.00–4034.00 range. XAUUSD is currently trading above this range, indicating seller weakness.
From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the low of July 29, 2026.
The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4040.30.
The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4090.80.
Intraday target: a retest of the July 29, 2026 low at 3989.90.
Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 3865.00.
Trading idea: consider selling within the favorable price range once a reversal pattern forms.
Sell: 4040.30–4090.80, Take Profit 1: 3989.90, Take Profit 2: 3865.00.
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Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 07 August 2026
XAUUSD: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00
Gold begins the week with moderate support as a weaker US dollar and a sharp decline in oil prices ease concerns about renewed inflationary pressure. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, alongside support from some policymakers for a rate increase, is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for the metal.
The main test will come from the US labor market data. Weak figures could reduce expectations of a rate increase and strengthen interest in XAUUSD, while a strong report may restore pressure. If the US dollar remains subdued and oil market conditions stay stable, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in gold.
Trading idea: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00
#SP500: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670
The #SP500 is receiving support from lower oil prices, which reduce the risk of renewed pressure on corporate costs and consumer demand. The earnings season also remains a source of resilience, although the market’s response to technology sector results is becoming more selective.
This week, the index’s direction will be shaped by employment data and further corporate earnings reports. A strong labor market could revive expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase and intensify pressure from elevated yields. For now, the decline in the energy risk premium is supporting demand for equities, leaving a cautious upside scenario as the base case.
Trading idea: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670
#BRENT: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50
Brent begins the week with a sharp decline after the United States cancelled new strikes against Iran and hopes for renewed negotiations increased. The restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the risk premium, while higher OPEC+ production quotas from September are reinforcing expectations of more abundant supply.
Negotiations could still break down, while regional supplies remain constrained, meaning the decline in oil prices may not be one-sided. Nevertheless, part of the geopolitical premium has already been removed, while demand forecasts remain restrained. If the diplomatic scenario remains intact, the priority stays with further downside in #BRENT.
Trading idea: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50
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XAUUSD: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00
Gold begins the week with moderate support as a weaker US dollar and a sharp decline in oil prices ease concerns about renewed inflationary pressure. However, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, alongside support from some policymakers for a rate increase, is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting demand for the metal.
The main test will come from the US labor market data. Weak figures could reduce expectations of a rate increase and strengthen interest in XAUUSD, while a strong report may restore pressure. If the US dollar remains subdued and oil market conditions stay stable, the base-case scenario allows for further gains in gold.
Trading idea: BUY 4060.00, SL 4020.00, TP 4160.00
#SP500: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670
The #SP500 is receiving support from lower oil prices, which reduce the risk of renewed pressure on corporate costs and consumer demand. The earnings season also remains a source of resilience, although the market’s response to technology sector results is becoming more selective.
This week, the index’s direction will be shaped by employment data and further corporate earnings reports. A strong labor market could revive expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase and intensify pressure from elevated yields. For now, the decline in the energy risk premium is supporting demand for equities, leaving a cautious upside scenario as the base case.
Trading idea: BUY 7540, SL 7480, TP 7670
#BRENT: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50
Brent begins the week with a sharp decline after the United States cancelled new strikes against Iran and hopes for renewed negotiations increased. The restoration of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce the risk premium, while higher OPEC+ production quotas from September are reinforcing expectations of more abundant supply.
Negotiations could still break down, while regional supplies remain constrained, meaning the decline in oil prices may not be one-sided. Nevertheless, part of the geopolitical premium has already been removed, while demand forecasts remain restrained. If the diplomatic scenario remains intact, the priority stays with further downside in #BRENT.
Trading idea: SELL 83.50, SL 86.00, TP 78.50
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
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USDJPY Reverses from 40-Year High
The USDJPY pair retreated from multi-decade highs following a rare joint intervention by the United States and Japan. In July, quotes climbed to 163.99 — the highest level in around 40 years — but by August 4, they had declined to the 157.7 area. At the peak of yen strengthening, the pair dropped to 155.20. A similar situation occurred in July 2024, when the pair rose to 161.9 and then fell to 139.7 over the following months.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed that on July 31 it bought yen jointly with the U.S. Treasury. According to Reuters, the U.S. side used euros rather than dollars for the operation. This approach helped support the Japanese currency without creating the impression that Washington was aiming to weaken the dollar.
Factors behind yen strengthening:
1. Joint intervention. U.S. participation significantly amplified the impact of the operation and increased market confidence in authorities’ determination to halt the yen’s decline. For traders, this signaled that further USDJPY growth could face not only Japan’s actions but also support from Washington.
2. Threat of further action. Japanese authorities stated they are ready to intervene again if yen weakness becomes excessively rapid. The risk of sudden intervention makes market participants more cautious about opening new positions against the yen.
3. Closing speculative positions. The sharp drop in USDJPY forced traders to take profits on bets against the yen. The mass closing of such positions accelerated the pair’s decline and boosted short-term demand for the Japanese currency.
At the same time, fundamental pressure on the yen has not disappeared. Interest rates in Japan remain lower than in the U.S., so the dollar still holds a yield advantage. Without further tightening by the Bank of Japan, the effect of the intervention may gradually fade.
In the near term, key levels for USDJPY are 155 and 160. A move below 155 could strengthen the yen further, while a return above 160 would indicate that the impact of the intervention is weakening.
According to FreshForex analysts, the risk of sharp USDJPY movements remains high. Traders should closely monitor statements from Japanese and U.S. authorities, Bank of Japan decisions, and U.S. labor market data. The possibility of another intervention creates trading opportunities but also increases the risk of sudden reversals.
FreshForex offers over 250 trading instruments, including major currency pairs. Use USDJPY volatility to find trading opportunities and profit!
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
The USDJPY pair retreated from multi-decade highs following a rare joint intervention by the United States and Japan. In July, quotes climbed to 163.99 — the highest level in around 40 years — but by August 4, they had declined to the 157.7 area. At the peak of yen strengthening, the pair dropped to 155.20. A similar situation occurred in July 2024, when the pair rose to 161.9 and then fell to 139.7 over the following months.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed that on July 31 it bought yen jointly with the U.S. Treasury. According to Reuters, the U.S. side used euros rather than dollars for the operation. This approach helped support the Japanese currency without creating the impression that Washington was aiming to weaken the dollar.
Factors behind yen strengthening:
1. Joint intervention. U.S. participation significantly amplified the impact of the operation and increased market confidence in authorities’ determination to halt the yen’s decline. For traders, this signaled that further USDJPY growth could face not only Japan’s actions but also support from Washington.
2. Threat of further action. Japanese authorities stated they are ready to intervene again if yen weakness becomes excessively rapid. The risk of sudden intervention makes market participants more cautious about opening new positions against the yen.
3. Closing speculative positions. The sharp drop in USDJPY forced traders to take profits on bets against the yen. The mass closing of such positions accelerated the pair’s decline and boosted short-term demand for the Japanese currency.
At the same time, fundamental pressure on the yen has not disappeared. Interest rates in Japan remain lower than in the U.S., so the dollar still holds a yield advantage. Without further tightening by the Bank of Japan, the effect of the intervention may gradually fade.
In the near term, key levels for USDJPY are 155 and 160. A move below 155 could strengthen the yen further, while a return above 160 would indicate that the impact of the intervention is weakening.
According to FreshForex analysts, the risk of sharp USDJPY movements remains high. Traders should closely monitor statements from Japanese and U.S. authorities, Bank of Japan decisions, and U.S. labor market data. The possibility of another intervention creates trading opportunities but also increases the risk of sudden reversals.
FreshForex offers over 250 trading instruments, including major currency pairs. Use USDJPY volatility to find trading opportunities and profit!
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
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Quote
Market Fundamental Analysis for August 5, 2026 USDJPY
Event to watch today:
15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change
17:00 EET. USD – ISM Services PMI
USDJPY:
The yen is receiving fresh fundamental support following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting. The document showed that policymakers were paying increased attention to inflation risks and considering the possibility of further rate increases. Additional support came from data showing that real wages rose by 1.6% in June, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase and strengthening the case for monetary policy normalization.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Pressure on USDJPY is also being reinforced by the recent joint intervention by the United States and Japan in support of the yen. Officials indicated that they were prepared to act again, while the US side publicly backed Tokyo’s efforts. At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a reduced probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase are diminishing the appeal of interest rate differential trades.
Slower growth in Japan’s services sector remains a limiting factor, meaning that sustained yen appreciation is not guaranteed. Strong US ADP or ISM data could also restore demand for the dollar. Nevertheless, the combination of a weaker dollar impulse, expectations of further Bank of Japan action, and the risk of renewed official measures makes a decline in USDJPY the more resilient base-case scenario.
Trading idea: SELL 157.50, SL 158.15, TP 155.90
Event to watch today:
15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change
17:00 EET. USD – ISM Services PMI
USDJPY:
The yen is receiving fresh fundamental support following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting. The document showed that policymakers were paying increased attention to inflation risks and considering the possibility of further rate increases. Additional support came from data showing that real wages rose by 1.6% in June, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase and strengthening the case for monetary policy normalization.
Only for our readers: mention the one-time promo code GIFT20 in the support chat and get +20% on your next deposit of any amount. The maximum bonus amount is $500. Only one promo code can be applied to a deposit at a time.
Pressure on USDJPY is also being reinforced by the recent joint intervention by the United States and Japan in support of the yen. Officials indicated that they were prepared to act again, while the US side publicly backed Tokyo’s efforts. At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a reduced probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase are diminishing the appeal of interest rate differential trades.
Slower growth in Japan’s services sector remains a limiting factor, meaning that sustained yen appreciation is not guaranteed. Strong US ADP or ISM data could also restore demand for the dollar. Nevertheless, the combination of a weaker dollar impulse, expectations of further Bank of Japan action, and the risk of renewed official measures makes a decline in USDJPY the more resilient base-case scenario.
Trading idea: SELL 157.50, SL 158.15, TP 155.90
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Quote
Analysis of margin levels for August 6, 2026 #NQ100
#NQ100: BUY 29364.4-29673.9, TP1-29951.3, TP2-30963.1.
Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code FXMERGE10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only.
Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29700.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.
Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 27660.0–27760.0 and 29710.0–29810.0 ranges. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.
From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of 05.08.2026.
The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29673.9.
The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29364.4.
Intraday target: a retest of the 05.08.2026 high at 29951.3.
Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30963.1.
Investment recommendation: buy from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.
Buy: 29364.4-29673.9, Take Profit 1-29951.3, Take Profit 2-30963.1.
#NQ100: BUY 29364.4-29673.9, TP1-29951.3, TP2-30963.1.
Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code FXMERGE10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only.
Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29700.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.
Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 27660.0–27760.0 and 29710.0–29810.0 ranges. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.
From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of 05.08.2026.
The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29673.9.
The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29364.4.
Intraday target: a retest of the 05.08.2026 high at 29951.3.
Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30963.1.
Investment recommendation: buy from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.
Buy: 29364.4-29673.9, Take Profit 1-29951.3, Take Profit 2-30963.1.
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Quote
Analysis of margin levels for August 6, 2026 #NQ100
#NQ100: BUY 29364.4-29673.9, TP1-29951.3, TP2-30963.1.
Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code FXMERGE10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only.
Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29700.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.
Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 27660.0–27760.0 and 29710.0–29810.0 ranges. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.
From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of 05.08.2026.
The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29673.9.
The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29364.4.
Intraday target: a retest of the 05.08.2026 high at 29951.3.
Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30963.1.
Investment recommendation: buy from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.
Buy: 29364.4-29673.9, Take Profit 1-29951.3, Take Profit 2-30963.1.
#NQ100: BUY 29364.4-29673.9, TP1-29951.3, TP2-30963.1.
Exclusively for our readers — get $10 to start trading with no deposit required! Register, complete verification, and enter the promo code FXMERGE10 in your Client Area. This is a limited offer: the bonus is available to the first 100 participants only.
Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29700.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.
Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 27660.0–27760.0 and 29710.0–29810.0 ranges. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.
From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of 05.08.2026.
The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29673.9.
The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29364.4.
Intraday target: a retest of the 05.08.2026 high at 29951.3.
Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30963.1.
Investment recommendation: buy from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.
Buy: 29364.4-29673.9, Take Profit 1-29951.3, Take Profit 2-30963.1.
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Quote
XAUUSD Surges in One Day: Gold Shocks the Market Again!
Gold delivered one of its strongest moves in recent months. During the August 5 trading session, XAUUSD gained about 4.4% and climbed above $4,250 per ounce — reaching its highest level in roughly seven weeks. The rally was especially notable after several months of decline. As recently as August 3, gold was trading near $4,030, meaning its value increased by more than 5% in just a few sessions!
Factors behind XAUUSD growth:
1. Weaker dollar. The decline of the U.S. currency made gold cheaper for buyers from other countries and supported demand. At the same time, falling government bond yields reduced the advantage of interest-bearing assets over gold, which does not generate income on its own.
2. Weak U.S. data. The private sector created fewer jobs than expected. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from around 67% to 55%, providing an additional reason to buy gold.
3. Falling oil prices. Talks between Iran and Oman increased hopes for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressure and reduce the need for further interest rate hikes.
4. Return of buyers. Holding the key psychological level of $4,000 attracted traders expecting a rebound after a prolonged correction. Accelerating growth forced the closure of short positions, further strengthening the upward momentum.
Despite the sharp jump, gold is still trading well below its January all-time high. Therefore, the current move could mark either the beginning of a new recovery phase or a short-term reaction to shifting expectations regarding Fed policy.
According to FreshForex analysts, a move above $4,300 will confirm buyer strength and open the way for further growth, making current levels potentially attractive for buying gold. A drop back below $4,100 would weaken this scenario and indicate fading upward momentum.
FreshForex offers 250+ trading instruments, including metals with leverage up to 1:1000.
Gold delivered one of its strongest moves in recent months. During the August 5 trading session, XAUUSD gained about 4.4% and climbed above $4,250 per ounce — reaching its highest level in roughly seven weeks. The rally was especially notable after several months of decline. As recently as August 3, gold was trading near $4,030, meaning its value increased by more than 5% in just a few sessions!
Factors behind XAUUSD growth:
1. Weaker dollar. The decline of the U.S. currency made gold cheaper for buyers from other countries and supported demand. At the same time, falling government bond yields reduced the advantage of interest-bearing assets over gold, which does not generate income on its own.
2. Weak U.S. data. The private sector created fewer jobs than expected. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from around 67% to 55%, providing an additional reason to buy gold.
3. Falling oil prices. Talks between Iran and Oman increased hopes for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressure and reduce the need for further interest rate hikes.
4. Return of buyers. Holding the key psychological level of $4,000 attracted traders expecting a rebound after a prolonged correction. Accelerating growth forced the closure of short positions, further strengthening the upward momentum.
Despite the sharp jump, gold is still trading well below its January all-time high. Therefore, the current move could mark either the beginning of a new recovery phase or a short-term reaction to shifting expectations regarding Fed policy.
According to FreshForex analysts, a move above $4,300 will confirm buyer strength and open the way for further growth, making current levels potentially attractive for buying gold. A drop back below $4,100 would weaken this scenario and indicate fading upward momentum.
FreshForex offers 250+ trading instruments, including metals with leverage up to 1:1000.
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Quote
Market Fundamental Analysis for August 7, 2026 EURUSD
Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.
The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.
The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1525, SL 1.1555, TP 1.1455
Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.
The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.
The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1525, SL 1.1555, TP 1.1455
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Quote
Market Fundamental Analysis for August 7, 2026 EURUSD
Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.
The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.
The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1525, SL 1.1555, TP 1.1455
Event to watch today:
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
EURUSD:
The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.
The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.
The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.
Trading idea: SELL 1.1525, SL 1.1555, TP 1.1455
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Aug 03, 2026 12:08