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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 2, 2026 USDJPY
Event to watch today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
USDJPY:
The Bank of Japan's decision on Friday maintained the prospect of further rate hikes, although the current rate remained at 1.25%. The regulator raised its inflation assessment, and Hajime Takata proposed an immediate rate increase to 1.50%. His proposal did not receive a majority but indicated pressure in favor of faster tightening. This supports expectations for higher yields on yen-denominated assets.
For the dollar, the counterbalance remains the Fed's rate of 3.75–4.00% and the US economy's resilience noted by regulators. The interest rate differential remains significant. However, the Friday decline in US bond yields was accompanied by a strengthening yen: this reaction shows that the dollar's advantage is sensitive to revisions in rate expectations and does not guarantee pair growth.
Today, Japan's Finance Minister again confirmed readiness to respond to excessive speculative movements. This is a warning, not a report of intervention. Combined with the prospect of policy tightening, it limits the potential for yen weakening. The baseline scenario for USDJPY allows for a decline; strong ISM data and a resumption of US yield growth could cancel it out.
Trading idea: SELL 157.90, SL 158.25, TP 157.15
Event to watch today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
USDJPY:
The Bank of Japan's decision on Friday maintained the prospect of further rate hikes, although the current rate remained at 1.25%. The regulator raised its inflation assessment, and Hajime Takata proposed an immediate rate increase to 1.50%. His proposal did not receive a majority but indicated pressure in favor of faster tightening. This supports expectations for higher yields on yen-denominated assets.
For the dollar, the counterbalance remains the Fed's rate of 3.75–4.00% and the US economy's resilience noted by regulators. The interest rate differential remains significant. However, the Friday decline in US bond yields was accompanied by a strengthening yen: this reaction shows that the dollar's advantage is sensitive to revisions in rate expectations and does not guarantee pair growth.
Today, Japan's Finance Minister again confirmed readiness to respond to excessive speculative movements. This is a warning, not a report of intervention. Combined with the prospect of policy tightening, it limits the potential for yen weakening. The baseline scenario for USDJPY allows for a decline; strong ISM data and a resumption of US yield growth could cancel it out.
Trading idea: SELL 157.90, SL 158.25, TP 157.15
Weekly review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | November 6, 2026
XAUUSD: SELL 3901.43, SL 3981.43, TP 3721.43
For gold, the main test of the week will be US employment data and its impact on rate expectations. The Fed maintained the range of 3.75–4.00%, noting strong economic growth and elevated inflation. As long as the risk of further tightening remains significant, the metal, lacking interest income, faces competition from dollar-denominated assets.
Uncertainty surrounding the Congressional elections supports safe-haven demand but does not eliminate pressure on the cost of money. Weak employment figures and declining yields could shift the scenario in favor of gold. However, if the statistics confirm the economy's resilience, expectations of high rates will continue to exert influence. In that case, the basic weekly idea for XAUUSD suggests a decline.
Trading Idea: SELL 3901.43, SL 3981.43, TP 3721.43
#SP500: SELL 7621, SL 7731, TP 7346
Earnings reports from Apple, AMD, and Palantir will test confidence in AI investments following disappointing results from Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel. For the market, it is no longer just infrastructure spending that matters, but also their return in terms of profit and cash flow. A deterioration in this assessment could sustain pressure on tech companies with significant weight in #SP500.
Congressional elections add uncertainty around industry regulation, while Friday's employment data will influence funding cost expectations. Rising aggregate corporate profits remain the index's support. However, convincing business forecasts are needed to restore confidence. As long as concerns about AI profitability persist, the weekly scenario allows for further downside in #SP500.
Trading idea: SELL 7621, SL 7731, TP 7346
#BRENT: SELL 109.32, SL 112.82, TP 102.32
The new week began with negotiations between Iran and Qatar, which continued for a third consecutive day. Hope for a diplomatic resolution can reduce the oil risk premium even before supply restoration. This creates grounds for a decline in #BRENT, although the consultations themselves do not yet signify an end to the conflict or normalization of shipments.
OPEC+ maintained its December production targets on Sunday, while export disruptions and threats to tankers keep the risk of shortage alive. Therefore, the potential for price declines depends primarily on further diplomatic signals. In the absence of new escalation, the base idea assumes a reduction in the oil risk premium; failed negotiations or serious supply disruptions could cancel this out.
Trading idea: SELL 109.32, SL 112.82, TP 102.32
XAUUSD: SELL 3901.43, SL 3981.43, TP 3721.43
For gold, the main test of the week will be US employment data and its impact on rate expectations. The Fed maintained the range of 3.75–4.00%, noting strong economic growth and elevated inflation. As long as the risk of further tightening remains significant, the metal, lacking interest income, faces competition from dollar-denominated assets.
Uncertainty surrounding the Congressional elections supports safe-haven demand but does not eliminate pressure on the cost of money. Weak employment figures and declining yields could shift the scenario in favor of gold. However, if the statistics confirm the economy's resilience, expectations of high rates will continue to exert influence. In that case, the basic weekly idea for XAUUSD suggests a decline.
Trading Idea: SELL 3901.43, SL 3981.43, TP 3721.43
#SP500: SELL 7621, SL 7731, TP 7346
Earnings reports from Apple, AMD, and Palantir will test confidence in AI investments following disappointing results from Alphabet, Amazon, and Intel. For the market, it is no longer just infrastructure spending that matters, but also their return in terms of profit and cash flow. A deterioration in this assessment could sustain pressure on tech companies with significant weight in #SP500.
Congressional elections add uncertainty around industry regulation, while Friday's employment data will influence funding cost expectations. Rising aggregate corporate profits remain the index's support. However, convincing business forecasts are needed to restore confidence. As long as concerns about AI profitability persist, the weekly scenario allows for further downside in #SP500.
Trading idea: SELL 7621, SL 7731, TP 7346
#BRENT: SELL 109.32, SL 112.82, TP 102.32
The new week began with negotiations between Iran and Qatar, which continued for a third consecutive day. Hope for a diplomatic resolution can reduce the oil risk premium even before supply restoration. This creates grounds for a decline in #BRENT, although the consultations themselves do not yet signify an end to the conflict or normalization of shipments.
OPEC+ maintained its December production targets on Sunday, while export disruptions and threats to tankers keep the risk of shortage alive. Therefore, the potential for price declines depends primarily on further diplomatic signals. In the absence of new escalation, the base idea assumes a reduction in the oil risk premium; failed negotiations or serious supply disruptions could cancel this out.
Trading idea: SELL 109.32, SL 112.82, TP 102.32
Expert145 posts
Quote
Elliott wave analysis of the market for November 3, 2026 BTCUSD
BTCUSD: BUY 78800, SL 76600, TP 95000.
Bitcoin attempted to recover its price, but the move was not very successful. The resulting movement was quickly liquidated.
However, the situation remains quite favorable for a general price increase. This is due to the possible completion of a correction in the form of a double zigzag. A rise is expected in this scenario as an upward impulse in the next phase of market development.
It is quite possible that we will see another attempt to start rising during today's session.
You can try cautiously buying on a breakout of yesterday's local extreme.
Investment idea: BUY 78800, SL 76600, TP 95000.
BTCUSD: BUY 78800, SL 76600, TP 95000.
Bitcoin attempted to recover its price, but the move was not very successful. The resulting movement was quickly liquidated.
However, the situation remains quite favorable for a general price increase. This is due to the possible completion of a correction in the form of a double zigzag. A rise is expected in this scenario as an upward impulse in the next phase of market development.
It is quite possible that we will see another attempt to start rising during today's session.
You can try cautiously buying on a breakout of yesterday's local extreme.
Investment idea: BUY 78800, SL 76600, TP 95000.
Expert145 posts
Quote
Oil plummeted by 7%: why Brent and WTI face another drop
On November 2, oil futures experienced a massive sell-off: Brent lost 7.6%, WTI — 7.3%. The catalyst was talks between Iran and Qatari mediators, which fueled expectations of a conflict resolution and the restoration of supplies from the Middle East. As of today #BRENT is trading around $104.66, #WTI at $96.26 per barrel.
Why oil remains under pressure
At the end of October, Brent reached its highest levels in six months amid fears of a new escalation of the conflict. These negotiations changed that sentiment and became a reason for reducing positions opened in anticipation of further oil price increases.
There has been no diplomatic breakthrough yet, but contacts continue. The prospect of more stable exports reduces buyers' willingness to pay for the threat of shortages. According to analysts at FreshForex, the reduction in this premium is currently creating the main downward pressure on the market.
Reports of a US strike on Iran's Kish Island on the morning of November 3 triggered only a slight initial rise in quotes relative to the previous crash. Geopolitical news has not yet returned strength to the market.
OPEC+ also failed to provide buyers with a new argument: on November 2, seven agreement members maintained their September target production levels for December without additional cuts. Maintaining the previous restrictions proved insufficient to counter expectations of improved supply.
Cheaper oil supports the European economy
Falling oil prices also affect other trading instruments. For European businesses, it means easing pressure on transportation and production costs. Through this channel, cheaper energy creates fundamental support for #DAX30.
For EURUSD a favorable factor is the decrease in the cost of energy imports for the eurozone. Thus, falling oil improves conditions for the European economy, although its impact on currencies and stocks materializes alongside other market factors.
According to analysts at FreshForex, the combination of fundamental factors and the current price structure support the continuation of the decline in #BRENT and #WTI. Negotiations are weakening geopolitical price support, and the decision by seven OPEC+ members did not add any new supply constraints.
For #BRENT's next downside target is $103.00, followed by $100.00. For #WTI analysts highlight $95.00 and then $94.00. The weak recovery after the sharp drop maintains sellers' advantage.
On November 2, oil futures experienced a massive sell-off: Brent lost 7.6%, WTI — 7.3%. The catalyst was talks between Iran and Qatari mediators, which fueled expectations of a conflict resolution and the restoration of supplies from the Middle East. As of today #BRENT is trading around $104.66, #WTI at $96.26 per barrel.
Why oil remains under pressure
At the end of October, Brent reached its highest levels in six months amid fears of a new escalation of the conflict. These negotiations changed that sentiment and became a reason for reducing positions opened in anticipation of further oil price increases.
There has been no diplomatic breakthrough yet, but contacts continue. The prospect of more stable exports reduces buyers' willingness to pay for the threat of shortages. According to analysts at FreshForex, the reduction in this premium is currently creating the main downward pressure on the market.
Reports of a US strike on Iran's Kish Island on the morning of November 3 triggered only a slight initial rise in quotes relative to the previous crash. Geopolitical news has not yet returned strength to the market.
OPEC+ also failed to provide buyers with a new argument: on November 2, seven agreement members maintained their September target production levels for December without additional cuts. Maintaining the previous restrictions proved insufficient to counter expectations of improved supply.
Cheaper oil supports the European economy
Falling oil prices also affect other trading instruments. For European businesses, it means easing pressure on transportation and production costs. Through this channel, cheaper energy creates fundamental support for #DAX30.
For EURUSD a favorable factor is the decrease in the cost of energy imports for the eurozone. Thus, falling oil improves conditions for the European economy, although its impact on currencies and stocks materializes alongside other market factors.
According to analysts at FreshForex, the combination of fundamental factors and the current price structure support the continuation of the decline in #BRENT and #WTI. Negotiations are weakening geopolitical price support, and the decision by seven OPEC+ members did not add any new supply constraints.
For #BRENT's next downside target is $103.00, followed by $100.00. For #WTI analysts highlight $95.00 and then $94.00. The weak recovery after the sharp drop maintains sellers' advantage.
Expert145 posts
Quote
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 4, 2026 GBPUSD
Event to watch today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index
GBPUSD:
For the pound, the key domestic factor remains tomorrow's Bank of England meeting. Economists expect a rate hike from 3.75% to 4.00% amid inflationary pressures. This is currently a forecast, not an adopted decision. Nevertheless, the expectation of higher yields on British assets helps the currency maintain investor interest ahead of the meeting results announcement.
UK inflation at 3.5% is combined with an economy that has proven more resilient than expected and signs of labor market stabilization. This backdrop increases the likelihood of policy tightening. At the same time, the market already prices in several subsequent rate hikes, while some economists allow for only a limited move. A cautious signal from the regulator could quickly diminish the pound's advantage.
Today, the dollar's weakness following the initial results of the US elections strengthens the UK's interest rate argument. The main risk to this combination is a strong US Services ISM report, especially if high price pressures persist: such a report could raise expectations for Fed rate hikes. Before its publication, the base scenario for GBPUSD assumes growth as long as current demand for the pound holds.
Trading idea: BUY 1.3465, SL 1.3430, TP 1.3535
Event to watch today:
17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index
GBPUSD:
For the pound, the key domestic factor remains tomorrow's Bank of England meeting. Economists expect a rate hike from 3.75% to 4.00% amid inflationary pressures. This is currently a forecast, not an adopted decision. Nevertheless, the expectation of higher yields on British assets helps the currency maintain investor interest ahead of the meeting results announcement.
UK inflation at 3.5% is combined with an economy that has proven more resilient than expected and signs of labor market stabilization. This backdrop increases the likelihood of policy tightening. At the same time, the market already prices in several subsequent rate hikes, while some economists allow for only a limited move. A cautious signal from the regulator could quickly diminish the pound's advantage.
Today, the dollar's weakness following the initial results of the US elections strengthens the UK's interest rate argument. The main risk to this combination is a strong US Services ISM report, especially if high price pressures persist: such a report could raise expectations for Fed rate hikes. Before its publication, the base scenario for GBPUSD assumes growth as long as current demand for the pound holds.
Trading idea: BUY 1.3465, SL 1.3430, TP 1.3535
Expert145 posts
Quote
Nov 02, 2026 06:47