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Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 24, 2026 BTCUSD
BTCUSD: FLAT.
A month without swaps on majors!
We did not see a continuation of the growth during the past trading day, although Bitcoin tried very hard. In the end, there was not enough strength for this final push and the price went in the opposite direction.
At the same time, the opportunity for another update of the local maximum, along with it, for the full completion of the development of the impulse in wave (v), is still preserved, as there has been no intersection with the first wave yet.
It is quite possible that buyers will attempt to make this move in the near future, so selling is not recommended for now.
In the current situation, it is worth watching how events will develop and acting when a clear picture appears.
Investment idea: FLAT.
BTCUSD: FLAT.
A month without swaps on majors!
We did not see a continuation of the growth during the past trading day, although Bitcoin tried very hard. In the end, there was not enough strength for this final push and the price went in the opposite direction.
At the same time, the opportunity for another update of the local maximum, along with it, for the full completion of the development of the impulse in wave (v), is still preserved, as there has been no intersection with the first wave yet.
It is quite possible that buyers will attempt to make this move in the near future, so selling is not recommended for now.
In the current situation, it is worth watching how events will develop and acting when a clear picture appears.
Investment idea: FLAT.
Bitcoin above $87,000: buyers are back!
The cryptocurrency market is back in the spotlight. On September 21, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose above $87,000, continuing its strong recovery after recent fluctuations. The move was not isolated: at the same time, the Nasdaq (#NQ100) once again approached its all-time high, while investor interest in riskier assets increased noticeably.
This makes Bitcoin’s current rise particularly interesting. The market is showing that BTC is now moving not only as an independent crypto asset but also as part of broader risk appetite, alongside the U.S. technology sector.
Our swap-free month for major currency pairs is ending soon! Learn more
Why Is Bitcoin Rising Alongside the Index?
1. The market is buying risk again. After several volatile sessions, investors returned to technology stocks, while the Nasdaq moved back toward record levels. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin: when risk appetite increases, cryptocurrencies often attract additional capital inflows.
2. Bond yields are falling. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 5%. This reduces pressure on risk assets and makes instruments such as BTCUSD and #NQ100 more attractive to investors.
3. Oil is no longer putting pressure on the market. Falling oil prices have eased concerns about inflation. The less the market fears another wave of price increases, the more comfortable investors become with growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
4. Strong momentum in technology is supporting crypto as well. Gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks have once again strengthened confidence in the technology sector. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is increasingly trading in the same direction as #NQ100 rather than moving independently.
At this point, not only the move above $87,000 matters, but also the nature of the move. While the cryptocurrency market often used to move independently, Bitcoin is now increasingly responding to the same drivers as the U.S. stock market: bond yields, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment.
According to FreshForex analysts, as long as risk appetite remains strong, Bitcoin has room for further growth. The current correlation with #NQ100 is supporting buyers: a strong technology sector, falling bond yields, and easing inflation concerns are creating a more favorable environment for BTCUSD. If BTCUSD holds above $87,000, the next psychological target for buyers could be $90,000, while a breakout above this level could open the way toward the $92,000–93,000 area.
The cryptocurrency market is back in the spotlight. On September 21, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rose above $87,000, continuing its strong recovery after recent fluctuations. The move was not isolated: at the same time, the Nasdaq (#NQ100) once again approached its all-time high, while investor interest in riskier assets increased noticeably.
This makes Bitcoin’s current rise particularly interesting. The market is showing that BTC is now moving not only as an independent crypto asset but also as part of broader risk appetite, alongside the U.S. technology sector.
Our swap-free month for major currency pairs is ending soon! Learn more
Why Is Bitcoin Rising Alongside the Index?
1. The market is buying risk again. After several volatile sessions, investors returned to technology stocks, while the Nasdaq moved back toward record levels. This creates a favorable environment for Bitcoin: when risk appetite increases, cryptocurrencies often attract additional capital inflows.
2. Bond yields are falling. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 5%. This reduces pressure on risk assets and makes instruments such as BTCUSD and #NQ100 more attractive to investors.
3. Oil is no longer putting pressure on the market. Falling oil prices have eased concerns about inflation. The less the market fears another wave of price increases, the more comfortable investors become with growth stocks and cryptocurrencies.
4. Strong momentum in technology is supporting crypto as well. Gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks have once again strengthened confidence in the technology sector. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is increasingly trading in the same direction as #NQ100 rather than moving independently.
At this point, not only the move above $87,000 matters, but also the nature of the move. While the cryptocurrency market often used to move independently, Bitcoin is now increasingly responding to the same drivers as the U.S. stock market: bond yields, inflation expectations, and overall investor sentiment.
According to FreshForex analysts, as long as risk appetite remains strong, Bitcoin has room for further growth. The current correlation with #NQ100 is supporting buyers: a strong technology sector, falling bond yields, and easing inflation concerns are creating a more favorable environment for BTCUSD. If BTCUSD holds above $87,000, the next psychological target for buyers could be $90,000, while a breakout above this level could open the way toward the $92,000–93,000 area.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2026 USDJPY
USDJPY:
USD/JPY remains near elevated levels after several sessions of gains. The pair's main support comes from rising US Treasury yields: the yield on 10-year bonds has approached its highest levels since 2007, and the market has strengthened expectations for a new Fed rate hike. Such dynamics are particularly sensitive for the yen, as the yield differential is once again working in favor of the dollar.
The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to 1.25% last week, but the decision did not provide sustained strengthening of the yen. Investors focused on the absence of a clear signal regarding further rapid steps and on disagreements within the board. This limits the effect of policy tightening, especially against the backdrop of rising US yields and persistent demand for the US currency.
A restraining factor remains the risk of action by Japanese authorities: following the Bank of Japan meeting, reports emerged about checks on exchange rates, and recent interventions make the market sensitive to yen weakness. Therefore, the upside potential for USD/JPY appears more limited than the dollar's momentum against the euro and pound. With no new confirmed actions from Tokyo yet, the base case still allows for cautious continuation of the pair's growth.
Trading idea: BUY 158.70, SL 158.35, TP 159.40
USDJPY:
USD/JPY remains near elevated levels after several sessions of gains. The pair's main support comes from rising US Treasury yields: the yield on 10-year bonds has approached its highest levels since 2007, and the market has strengthened expectations for a new Fed rate hike. Such dynamics are particularly sensitive for the yen, as the yield differential is once again working in favor of the dollar.
The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to 1.25% last week, but the decision did not provide sustained strengthening of the yen. Investors focused on the absence of a clear signal regarding further rapid steps and on disagreements within the board. This limits the effect of policy tightening, especially against the backdrop of rising US yields and persistent demand for the US currency.
A restraining factor remains the risk of action by Japanese authorities: following the Bank of Japan meeting, reports emerged about checks on exchange rates, and recent interventions make the market sensitive to yen weakness. Therefore, the upside potential for USD/JPY appears more limited than the dollar's momentum against the euro and pound. With no new confirmed actions from Tokyo yet, the base case still allows for cautious continuation of the pair's growth.
Trading idea: BUY 158.70, SL 158.35, TP 159.40
Expert103 posts
Quote
Sep 24, 2026 05:59